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Research and Markets: Thailand Insurance Report Q1 2009
Tuesday April 7, 06:57 AM
Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/10beb9/thailand_insurance)
has announced the addition of the "Thailand
Insurance Report Q1 2009" report to their offering.
Our Thailand Insurance Report provides independent forecasts and
competitive intelligence on Thailand's insurance industry.
The comparatively brisk rebound in Thailand's real GDP growth in H108,
of 5.7% y-o-y, is in our view highly unlikely to be repeated in the
second half, with significant trade headwinds, political turmoil and
turbulent financial markets having affected economic activity. With the
threat from inflation receding in line with falling commodity prices,
the focus of the authorities has turned firmly towards warding off a
'hard landing', and signs of an impending slowdown abound. We have
accordingly modified our growth outlook. We now envisage real GDP growth
slowing to 3.8% in 2009, from a downwardly revised 4.2% in 2008 and
tentatively pencil in a rebound to 4.5% in 2010. The 2009 forecast
coincides with the lower band of the Bank of Thailand's new 3.8-5.0%
forecast, but is slightly below the government's 4.0% target. The Thai
baht has been knocked about by the gyrations on financial markets and
ongoing domestic political woes, shedding over 12% versus the US dollar
since mid-March 2008. There is scope for the unit to slip a bit further
over the near term and we have lowered our end-2008 forecast to
THB36.00/US$, from THB33.00/US$ previously. However, any further spasms
of volatility are likely to be met by intervention by the Bank of
Thailand, which has amassed a sizeable FX buffer (US$103bn, as of
October 24).
Since the last quarter, we have made two major changes to the data in
this report. First, we have - to the greatest extent possible -
incorporated hard figures that have been made available by the
regulator(s) and trade association(s) in each country. In some cases,
therefore, we have begun to include numbers that pertain to the
development of the insurance sector through the early stages of the
global financial crisis. Second, we have extended our forecasts out to
2013. In all cases, we have reviewed the key growth drivers - non-life
penetration and life density - which we had incorporated in our
forecasts.
The Global Financial Crisis is likely to affect the various segments of
the global insurance industry in different ways. In many countries -
especially in Europe - the coming recession points to softness in the
non-life segment. In many cases, the numbers of policies may fall: there
should be downwards pressure on premiums. By contrast, the main problem
for the life segment - in almost all countries - is the extreme
volatility of financial markets. Over the longer term, though, the
fortunes of life insurance will recover - thanks to the secular growth
of organised savings in most countries. China, where the larger
insurance companies continue to achieve double-digit growth in premium
income, is a good example of this. Some particular niches should also do
well in the current environment, such as legal liability insurance.
Companies Mentioned:
AEGON
AIG
Allianz
Aviva
AXA
Cardif
Fortis
Generali
Groupama
HDI-Gerling
HSBC Insurance
ING
Liberty
Mutual
Manulife
MetLife
Prudential Financial
Prudential Plc
QBE
RSA
Sun Life Financial
The Hartford
The Principal and Zurich
For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/10beb9/thailand_insurance
Contact:Laura WoodSenior Managerpress@researchandmarkets.comFax
from USA: 646-607-1907Fax from rest of the world: +353-1-481-1716
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