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Research and Markets: GrameenPhone to Lose Market Share to PBTL and Warid Over the Next Five Years
Wednesday April 15, 02:17 AM
Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/4ee8c7/1q09_bangladesh_mo)
has announced the addition of IE Market Research Corp.'s new report "1Q09
Bangladesh Mobile Operator Forecast, 2008 - 2013" to their offering.
"GrameenPhone to lose market share to PBTL and Warid over the next five
years"
Mobile Operator Forecast on Bangladesh provides over 65 operational and
financial metrics for Bangladesh's wireless market and is one of the
best forecasts in the industry. We provide six-year forecasts at the
operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical
and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 4Q2013. Operators
covered for Bangladesh include Bangalink/Sheba (Orascom Tel),
GrameenPhone (Telenor), TM Int'l (Telekom Malaysia), PBTL (SingTel),
Warid, and BTTB. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and
are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers up to 65 operational metrics of
200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world's
population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific
forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and
cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber
data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and
demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these
to company operational and financial metrics.
So what is our forecast?
We forecast that total subscribers in Bangladesh will increase from
46.93 million in 2008 to 76.3 million in 2013.
All operators will see their number of subscribers increase over the
next five years.
GrameenPhone will maintain its lead over the next five years.
Bangalink, TM Int'l, Warid and PBTL will remain in second, third,
fourth and fifth place respectively. BTTB to finish last.
GrameenPhone leads Bangladesh's mobile operator space:
Our model predicts that GrameenPhone will continue to lead Bangladesh
in market shares.
TM Int'l and BTTB to lose market shares over the forecast period.
TM Int'l will slide in third place at 17.1% in 2013 while BTTB remains
last at 1.9% in 2013.
GrameenPhone will continue to lose market shares to PBTL and Warid
over the next five years.
GrameenPhone's share of total subscribers will drop from 45% in 2008
to 41.2% in 2013 while Warid will increase from 5.7% in 2008 to 9.5%
in 2013.
PBTL will slightly grow from 5.6 in 2008 to 6.1 in 2013.
ARPUs expected to continue their decline:
Our model predicts that GrameenPhone and Bangalink will see their
ARPUs decrease over the next five years.
GrameenPhone to lead Bangladesh in ARPU in 2008. Bangalink to take
over the lead after 2009.
GrameenPhone will see its ARPU fall from US$ 3.6 in 2008 to US$ 2.2 in
2013.
Bangalink will see its ARPU fall from US$ 3 in 2007 to US$ 2.4 in 2013.
EBITDA margins will decrease
We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as
EBITDA/reported revenue) will be 17.2% in 2013.
Our model predicts that the average EBITDA margin will decline from
27.2% in 2008 to 17.2.1% in 2013.
GrameenPhone and Bangalink will see their EBITDA margin grow over the
forecast period.
GrameenPhone will decrease from 41.7% in 2008 to 51.5% in 2013, while
Bangalink will increase from -3.2% in 2008 to 0.5% in 2013.
1Q09 Bangladesh Mobile Operator Forecast, 2008 - 2013 Companies
Mentioned:
Bangalink/Sheba (Orascom Tel)
GrameenPhone (Telenor)
TM Int'l (Telekom Malaysia)
PBTL (SingTel)
Warid
BTTB
For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/4ee8c7/1q09_bangladesh_mo
Contact:Research and MarketsLaura Wood, Senior ManagerFax from USA:
646-607-1907Fax from rest of the world: +353-1-481-1716press@researchandmarkets.com
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