http://nz.biz.yahoo.com//090414/24/bsrh.html
Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/02d479/hong_kong_insuranc)
has announced the addition of the "Hong
Kong Insurance Report Q1 2009" report to their offering.
The Hong Kong Insurance Report provides independent forecasts and
competitive intelligence on Hong Kong's insurance industry.
As anticipated, after exceeding expectations in the first quarter, Hong
Kong's economic growth slowed markedly in Q208. Preliminary national
accounts data put Hong Kong's real GDP growth at 4.2% year-on-year
(y-o-y) in April-June, down from a revised 7.3% y-o-y in Q108
(previously reported as 7.1%). On a seasonally adjusted
quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) basis, Hong Kong's real GDP contracted by
1.4% q-o-q - its first quarterly fall since Q203 - however this must be
viewed against the stellar Q1 performance. The data put overall growth
in H208 at 5.8% y-o-y. In light of deteriorating growth prospects - not
only across the developed world, but also in mainland China - we have
revised down our 2008 and 2009 growth forecasts for Hong Kong since our
last quarterly Business Forecast Report. We are now expecting the
territory's real GDP to expand by 4.6% in 2008 (down from 5.0%), with
growth slowing to 4.1% in 2009 (previously 4.8%). The Hong Kong
government has retained its growth forecast of 4-5% for 2008.
The deteriorating external environment, as the fallout for the US
sub-prime mortgage-induced financial turmoil spreads, poses a key threat
to Hong Kong's economic performance in 2009. The slowing global economy
will dampen demand for Hong Kong's goods, reducing export earnings and
hampering growth. A downturn in business activity will feed through to
the labour market that, combined with declining property and stock
market prices, will further erode household wealth and consumer
confidence. Furthermore, while it is not our core scenario, a marked
downturn in the Chinese economy would have a significant impact on Hong
Kong. Positively, China has pledged to help Hong Kong weather global
economic turmoil by speeding up infrastructure projects and safeguarding
food supplies. Beijing said in October that it would safeguard food
supplies to Hong Kong to relieve inflation pressure in the territory,
expedite infrastructure projects and support small and medium-sized
businesses. Beijing also plans to further relax visa restrictions to
allow more mainland Chinese to travel freely to Hong Kong, potentially
boosting tourism in the territory.
Since the last quarter, we have made two major changes to the data in
this report. First, we have - to the greatest extent possible -
incorporated hard figures that have been made available by the
regulator(s) and trade association(s) in each country. In some cases,
therefore, we have begun to include numbers that pertain to the
development of the insurance sector through the early stages of the
global financial crisis. Second, we have extended our forecasts out to
2013. In all cases, we have reviewed the key growth drivers - non-life
penetration and life density - which we had incorporated in our
forecasts.
The Global Financial Crisis is likely to affect the various segments of
the global insurance industry in different ways. In many countries -
especially in Europe - the coming recession points to softness in the
non-life segment. In many cases, the numbers of policies may fall: there
should be downwards pressure on premiums. By contrast, the main problem
for the life segment - in almost all countries - is the extreme
volatility of financial markets. Over the longer term, though, the
fortunes of life insurance will recover - thanks to the secular growth
of organised savings in most countries. China, where the larger
insurance companies continue to achieve double-digit growth in premium
income, is a good example of this. Some particular niches should also do
well in the current environment, such as legal liability insurance. In
the Asia Pacific, we profile 23 companies. These are AEGON, AIG,
Allianz, Aviva, AXA, Cardif, Fortis, Generali, Groupama, HDI-Gerling,
HSBC Insurance, ING Group, Liberty Mutual, Manulife, MetLife, Prudential
Financial, Prudential plc, QBE, RSA, Sun Life Financial, The Hartford,
Principal Financial Group and Zurich Financial Services. We estimate
that, over the course of 2008, total premiums in Hong Kong rose by 26%
to HKD212,314mn. Non-life premiums rose by 6% to HKD27,014mn, while life
premiums rose by 30% to HKD 185,300mn.
Between now and the end of the forecast period, we expect that annual
non-life premiums will grow by HKD13,263mn, while annual life premiums
should increase by HKD25,021mn. Growth in non-life premiums should be
driven by the general growth in nominal GDP plus a rise in non-life
penetration from the current level of 1.54% to 1.60%. Growth in life
premiums should be driven by the change in the overall population and a
rise in life density from US$3,080.77 to US$3,500.00 per capita. BMI's
Insurance Business Environment Rating is 76.5.
Key Topics Covered:
The Sector At A Glance
Development Of BMI's Insurance Reports
Projections And Forecast
Country Update
Insurance Business Environment Rating
Regional Context
Analysis Of Competitive Conditions
Company Profiles
Basis Of Projections
Companies Mentioned:
AEGON
AIG
Allianz
Aviva
AXA
Cardif
Fortis
Generali
Groupama
HDI-Gerling
HSBC Insurance
ING
Liberty Mutual
Manulife
MetLife
Prudential Financial
Prudential Plc
QBE
RSA
Sun Life Financial
The Hartford
The Principal
Zurich
For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/02d479/hong_kong_insuranc
Contact:Research and MarketsLaura WoodSenior Managerpress@researchandmarkets.comFax
from USA: 646-607-1907Fax from rest of the world: +353-1-481-1716
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