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Research and Markets: In 2008, Total Insurance Premiums in the Philippines Rose by 10% to PHP128,217mn
Friday April 17, 02:39 AM
Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/00cb17/philippines_insura)
has announced the addition of the "Philippines
Insurance Report Q1 2009" report to their offering.
The Philippines Insurance Report provides independent forecasts and
competitive intelligence on Philippines's insurance industry.
Although real GDP growth accelerated to 4.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) in
Q308 - from 4.4% in the previous three months - we still retain our
downbeat view of the Philippine economy. The author continues to caution
that risks to our current 4.3% growth forecast for 2009 remain firmly
weighted to the downside, as domestic demand continues to weaken amid
slowing remittances and growing economic uncertainty - and the
performance of net exports remains lacklustre.
Real GDP growth accelerated from the six-year low of 4.4% y-o-y recorded
in Q208 to 4.6% in the July-September period, as a sharp rebound in
government spending and the ongoing strength of remittances from
Filipinos working overseas helped to compensate for the continuing
lacklustre performance of the export sector. However, on a seasonally
adjusted sequential basis, economic growth decelerated from 1.9%
quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) to 0.9%, underscoring the fact that downside
risks to economic activity still persist and that a further deceleration
of growth momentum remains on the cards.
Indeed, one of the main factors explaining the rebound in economic
activity in Q308 was the bounce in private consumption, the growth of
which accelerated to 4.6% y-o-y from 4.1% in the previous quarter to
contribute 3.5% to headline growth. The key driver of this was the
ongoing strength of remittances from Filipinos working abroad, which
account for approximately 10% of GDP and provide a significant source of
income for those still residing in the country. These rose by 17.1%
y-o-y in Q308 to US$4.03bn, but with the global economy set to continue
decelerating over the coming quarters, we believe that remittance
inflows are likely to wane.
The Global Financial Crisis is likely to affect the various segments of
the global insurance industry in different ways. In many countries -
especially in Europe - the coming recession points to softness in the
non-life segment. In many cases, the numbers of policies may fall: there
should be downwards pressure on premiums. By contrast, the main problem
for the life segment - in almost all countries - is the extreme
volatility of financial markets. Over the longer term, though, the
fortunes of life insurance will recover - thanks to the secular growth
of organised savings in most countries. China, where the larger
insurance companies continue to achieve double-digit growth in premium
income, is a good example of this. Some particular niches should also do
well in the current environment, such as legal liability insurance.
In the Asia Pacific, we profile 23 companies. These are AEGON, AIG,
Allianz, Aviva, AXA, Cardif, Fortis, Generali, Groupama, HDI-Gerling,
HSBC Insurance, ING Group, Liberty Mutual, Manulife, MetLife, Prudential
Financial, Prudential plc, QBE, RSA, Sun Life Financial, The Hartford,
Principal Financial Group and Zurich Financial Services.
We also look at various local firms that are active in the region: some
of these companies rank, in terms of the premiums that they write, among
the largest in the world.
For almost all the countries whose reports we are updating, we are also
able to include actual data for calendar 2007: this was not the case for
our Q208 reports.
In 2008, total premiums in the Philippines rose by 10% to PHP128,217mn.
Non-life premiums rose by 19% to PHP47,498mn, while life premiums rose
by 6% to an estimated PHP80,719mn.
Between now and the end of the forecast period, we expect that annual
non-life premiums will grow by PHP26,147.62mn, while annual life
premiums should fall by PHP1,119.12mn. Growth in non-life premiums
should be driven by the general growth in nominal GDP plus a rise in
non-life penetration from the current level of 0.57% to 0.75%. Growth in
life premiums should be driven by the change in the overall population
and a rise in life density from US$19.33 to US$70.00 per capita. The
Insurance Business Environment Rating is 50.9.
Key Topics Covered:
The Sector At A Glance
Development Of Insurance Reports
Projections And Forecasts
Country Update
Insurance Business Environment Rating
Regional Context
Company Profiles
Country Snapshot: Philippines Demographic Data
Methodology
Companies Mentioned:
AEGON
AIG
Allianz
Aviva
AXA
Cardif
Fortis
Generali
Groupama
HDI-Gerling
HSBC Insurance
ING
Liberty Mutual
Manulife
MetLife
Prudential Financial
Prudential Plc
QBE
RSA
Sun Life Financial
The Hartford
The Principal
Zurich
For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/00cb17/philippines_insura
Contact:Research and MarketsLaura WoodSenior Managerpress@researchandmarkets.comFax
from USA: 646-607-1907Fax from rest of the world: +353-1-481-1716
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