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Research and Markets: Malaysia Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: Total Wireless Subscribers in Malaysia to Reach 44.2 Million in 2013
Thursday October 8, 03:00 PM
Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/cfca9c/3q09_malaysia_mobi)
has announced the addition of IE Market Research Corp.'s new report "3Q09
Malaysia Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013" to their offering.
Total wireless subscribers in Malaysia to reach 44.2 million in 2013
with ARPU levels declining across operators over the next five years.
The Mobile Operator Forecast on Malaysia provides over 50 operational
and financial metrics for the US wireless market and is one of the best
forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the
operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical
and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 1Q2011. Operators
covered for Malaysia include: Maxis Mobile Services Sdn. Bhd., Celcom
(Malaysia) Berhad, and DiGi Telecommunications Sdn. Bhd. Our Mobile
Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time
delivery or through regular updates.
The Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of
200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world's
population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific
forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and
cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber
data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and
demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these
to company operational and financial metrics.
Executive Summary:
Strong subscriber growth continues in Malaysia's mobile operator space
+19.2% industry average subscriber growth in 1Q.2009
ARPU levels continue to decline in Malaysia
-11.4% operator-wide average ARPU growth in 1Q.2009
Minutes of Use per Subscriber growth remains positive
+3.0% industry average MOU/Sub growth in 1Q.2009
Maxis and Celcom enjoy positive EBITDA growth
+2.7% industry average EBITDA growth in 1Q.2009
So what is IEMR's Forecast?
Total wireless subscribers in Malaysia to reach 44.2 million in 2013
Given the latest quarter numbers, we forecast that total subscribers
in Malaysia will increase from 27.1 million in 2008 to 44.2 million in
2013.
All of the three major operators will see their number of subscribers
increase over the next five years
Our forecasting model predicts that the numbers of subscribers at
Maxis, Celcom, DiGi will reach 20 million, 13 million, and 11 million,
respectively in 2013.
Maxis will see its subscriber market share increase from 2009 to 2013
Our model forecasts that Maxis's subscriber market share will increase
from 41.7% in 2008 to 45.4% in 2013.
Instead, we expect that Celcom's subscriber market share will decline
from 32.3% to 29.7% and that of DiGi will decline from 26.0% to 24.9%
over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
Declining trend in ARPUs will continue over the next five years in
Malaysia's mobile operator space
Our model predicts that all operators will see their ARPUs decrease
over the next five years.
We forecast that Maxis's monthly ARPU will fall from MYR 62.75 in 2008
to MYR 49.89 in 2013. Celcom's monthly ARPU will also decline to
approximately MYR 48.17 in 2013.
We expect that DiGi's monthly ARPU will decline from MYR 58.89 in 2008
to MYR 55.45 in 2013.
Celcom will be enjoying the highest level of profitability in Malaysia's
wireless market from 2009 to 2013
Although we forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin
(calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will decline from 43.4% in
2008 to 38.7% in 2013, we predict that Celcom's EBITDA margin will
improve from 44.8% in 2008 to 46.4% in 2013.
In comparison, we are expecting that Maxis's EBITDA margin will
decline from 41.6% in 2008 to 37.4% in 2013.
Companies Mentioned:
Maxis Mobile Services Sdn. Bhd.
Celcom (Malaysia) Berhad
DiGi Telecommunications Sdn. Bhd.
For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/cfca9c/3q09_malaysia_mobi
Contact:Research and MarketsLaura Wood, Senior Manager,U.S. Fax: 646-607-1907Fax (outside U.S.): +353-1-481-1716press@researchandmarkets.com
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