http://nz.biz.yahoo.com//091008/24/f0aw.html
Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/0fdf6b/3q09_south_korea_m)
has announced the addition of IE Market Research Corp.'s new report "3Q09
South Korea Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013" to their offering.
The Mobile Operator Forecast on South Korea provides over 50 operational
and financial metrics for South Korea's wireless market and is one of
the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at
the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly
historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 1Q2011.
Operators covered for South Korea include: SK Telecom Co., Ltd., Korea
Telecom Freetel (KTF), and LG Telecom Ltd. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts
are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through
regular updates.
The Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of
200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world's
population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific
forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and
cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber
data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and
demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these
to company operational and financial metrics.
Executive Summary:
Wireless subscriber growth in South Korea is slowing down
+4.4% industry-average subscriber growth in 1Q.2009
Negative ARPU growth continues
-2.2% operator-wide average ARPU growth in 1Q.2009
Minutes of Use per Subscriber decreasing slightly
-2.2% industry-wide average MOU/Sub growth in 1Q.2009
Strong EBITDA growth at KTF and LG Telecom in the latest quarter
Industry average EBITDA growth was 15.3% in 1Q.2009
So what is IEMR's Forecast?
Total wireless subscribers in South Korea to reach 56.6 million in 2013
We forecast that the number of total mobile subscribers in South Korea
will increase from 45.6 million in 2008 to 56.6 million in 2013.
All operators will see their number of subscribers increase over the
next five years.
We expect that SK Telecom will continue to be the largest operator in
the country with 28.3 million subscribers in 2013.
Our model predicts that KTF will have 17.4 million subscribers and LG
Telecom will have 10.9 million subscribers by the end of 2013.
SK Telecom and KFT will be losing market shares to LG Telecom over the
next five years
We forecast that SK Telecom will continue to lead South Korea in
market shares, but its subscriber market share will decline from 50.5%
in 2008 to 50.0% in 2013.
KTF will also see its subscriber market share fall from 31.5% in 2008
to 30.8% in 2013.
On the other hand, we forecast that LG Telecom's share of total
subscribers will increase from 18.0% in 2008 to 19.3% in 2013.
The industry-average ARPU level will stabilize from 2009 to 2013
Our model predicts that, on average, ARPUs in South Korea will remain
stable with monthly ARPU level of around 40,000 won over the next five
years.
We expect that SK Telecom will continue to enjoy the highest level of
ARPU in South Korea with monthly ARPU of 42,024 won in 2013.
Monthly ARPU levels at KTF and LG Telecom will be 40,039 won and
30,895 won respectively in 2013, according to our model.
EBITDA margins will improve at KTF and LG Telecom over the next five
years
We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as
EBITDA/reported revenue) will decline from 25.6% in 2008 to 22.7% in
2013.
SK Telecom will continue to enjoy the highest level of profitability
in South Korea's mobile operator space. However, we expect that SK
Telecom's EBITDA margin will fall from 34.3% in 2008 to 27.5% in 2013.
On the other hand, we expect that KTF's EBITDA margin will improve
from 18.8% in 2008 to 20.0% in 2013. We also predict that LG Telecom's
EBITDA margin will improve slightly from 16.2% in 2008 to 16.4% in
2013.
Companies Mentioned:
SK Telecom Co., Ltd.
Korea Telecom Freetel (KTF)
LG Telecom Ltd.
For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/0fdf6b/3q09_south_korea_m
Contact:Research and MarketsLaura Wood, Senior Managerpress@researchandmarkets.comU.S.
Fax: 646-607-1907Fax (outside U.S.): +353-1-481-1716
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