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Research and Markets: South Korea Oil and Gas Report Q4 2009 Reveals that South Korea's Oil & Gas will Account for 8.38% of Asia Pacific's Regional Oi
Tuesday October 20, 03:00 PM
Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/a00fe8/south_korea_oil_an)
has announced the addition of the "South
Korea Oil and Gas Report Q4 2009" report to their offering.
This South Korea Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and
strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government
departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and
competitive intelligence on South Korea's oil and gas industry.
The latest South Korea Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the
country will account for 8.38% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by
2013, while making no appreciable contribution to supply. Asia Pacific
regional oil use of 21.40mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached
25.67mn b/d in 2008. It should average 24.83mn b/d in 2009, then rise to
around 28.51mn b/d by 2013. Regional oil production was just under
8.41mn b/d in 2001, and averaged 8.45mn b/d in 2008. It is set to
increase to 8.75mn b/d by 2013. In 2001 the region was importing an
average 12.99mn b/d. This total had risen to an estimated 17.22mn b/d in
2008, and is forecast to reach 19.76mn b/d by 2013.
In terms of natural gas, in 2008 the region consumed 459bn cubic metres
(bcm) and demand of 562bcm is targeted for 2013. Production of 356bcm in
2008 should reach 488bcm in 2013, but implies net imports easing from an
estimated 102bcm per annum in 2008 to 74bcm in 2013. This is in spite of
many Asian gas producers being major exporters. South Korea's share of
gas consumption in 2008 was 8.66%, while its share of production was
minimal. By 2013, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 7.44%.
For 2009 as a whole, the publisher is now assuming an average OPEC
basket price of US$55.00 per barrel (bbl), a 41.5% decline year-on-year
(y-o-y). This represents an upgrade from the US$52 forecast the
publisher has stuck with during the past three quarters. Their OPEC
basket assumption delivers likely Brent, WTI, Urals and Dubai prices of
US$56.30, US$57.50, US$55.60 and US$55.60/bbl respectively. For 2010,
the publisher expects to see a recovery to US$60.00/bbl for the OPEC
price (up from their previous forecast of US$58), gaining further ground
to US$65.00 in 2011 and to US$70.00/bbl in 2012. Their post-2010
forecasts are unchanged and the publisher is continuing to use a
long-term price assumption of US$70.00 for 2013-2018.
In 2009, BMI is now assuming a global average gasoline price of
US$62.12/bbl, with the fuel having peaked in June. The overall y-o-y
fall in 2009 gasoline prices is put at 40.0%. The BMI gasoil forecast is
for an average price of US$68.62/bbl, assuming a monthly high of
US$92.49/bbl in December. The fullyear outturn represents a 43.4% fall
from the 2008 level. The annual jet price level for 2009 is forecast to
be US$65.17/bbl. This compares with US$124.95/bbl in 2008. The 2009
average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$49.06/bbl, down 43.9% from the
previous year's level.
South Korean real GDP is now forecast by BMI to contract by 3.3% in
2009, compared with growth of 2.2% in 2008. The publisher is assuming
1.8% growth in 2010, 3.3% in 2011, followed by 3.2% in 2012, and 3.3% in
2013. Several South Korean oil companies, including state interests, are
engaged in securing international upstream production, but the domestic
market offers little potential for oil or gas. Oil consumption beyond
2009 is forecast to increase by no more than 1% per annum to 2013,
implying demand of 2.39mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. Gas
demand is forecast to rise from the 2008 level of 39.7bcm to 41.8bcm by
2013, with the bulk of the fuel being imported in the form of liquefied
natural gas (LNG).
Between 2008 and 2018, the publisher is forecasting an increase in South
Korea's oil consumption from 2.29mn b/d to 2.40mn b/d (+4.7%), with the
country's refining capacity rising from 2.71mn b/d to 2.75mn b/d. Gas
demand is expected to rise from 39.7bcm in 2008 to a possible 45.7bcm by
2018, met largely by LNG imports. Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts can
be found at the end of this report, which provides regional and
country-specific projections.
South Korea still ranks 13th (ahead only of Taiwan) in BMI's updated
Upstream Business Environment rating, thanks to a virtual absence of
hydrocarbon resources. The score reflects an exceptionally healthy
country risk profile, which offsets partly the lack of reserves and
output growth potential. The country has a comfortable lead over Taiwan
in the upstream league table. South Korea now ranks sixth in BMI's
updated Downstream Business Environment rating, reflecting its
relatively high levels of oil and gas consumption, established modern
refining capability and relatively low level of state involvement. It is
only one point behind Singapore, but offers limited scope to climb the
league table.
Key Topics Covered:
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
South Korea Energy Market Overview
Business Environment Ranking
Business Environment
Company Monitor
Glossary Of Terms
Methodology & Risks To Forecasts
Companies Mentioned:
Korea National Oil Corporation (KNOC)
Korea Gas (Kogas)
SK Energy
GS-Caltex
S-Oil
Hyundai Oilbank
Woodside Petroleum
For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/a00fe8/south_korea_oil_an
Contact:Research and MarketsLaura Wood, Senior Manager,press@researchandmarkets.comU.S. Fax: 646-607-1907Fax (outside U.S.): +353-1-481-1716
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