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Research and Markets: Thailand Oil and Gas Report Q4 2009 - In 2008 the Region Consumed 459bn Cubic Metres (bcm) and Demand of 562bcm is Targeted for
Thursday October 22, 03:00 PM
Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/97b357/thailand_oil_and_g)
has announced the addition of the "Thailand
Oil and Gas Report Q4 2009" report to their offering.
This Thailand Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and
strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government
departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and
competitive intelligence on Thailand's oil and gas industry
The latest Thailand Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country
will account for 2.92% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2013,
while providing 2.77% of supply. Asia Pacific regional oil use of
21.40mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached 25.67mn b/d in 2008. It
should average 24.83mn b/d in 2009, then rise to around 28.51mn b/d by
2013. Regional oil production was just under 8.41mn b/d in 2001, and
averaged 8.45mn b/d in 2008. It is set to increase to 8.75mn b/d by
2013. In 2001 the region was importing an average 12.99mn b/d. This
total had risen to an estimated 17.22mn b/d in 2008, and is forecast to
reach 19.76mn b/d by 2013.
In terms of natural gas, in 2008 the region consumed 459bn cubic metres
(bcm) and demand of 562bcm is targeted for 2013. Production of 356bcm in
2008 should reach 488bcm in 2013, but implies net imports easing from an
estimated 102bcm per annum in 2008 to 74bcm in 2013. This is in spite of
many Asian gas producers being major exporters. Thailand's share of gas
consumption in 2008 was 8.16%, while its share of production was 8.11%.
By 2013, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 7.58%, with the
country accounting for 7.17% of supply.
For 2009 as a whole, the publisher is now assuming an average OPEC
basket price of US$55.00 per barrel (bbl), a 41.5% decline year-on-year
(y-o-y). This represents an upgrade from the US$52 forecast they have
stuck with during the past three quarters. Their OPEC basket assumption
delivers likely Brent, WTI, Urals and Dubai prices of US$56.30,
US$57.50, US$55.60 and US$55.60/bbl respectively. For 2010, the
publisher expects to see a recovery to US$60.00/bbl for the OPEC price
(up from their previous forecast of US$58), gaining further ground to
US$65.00 in 2011 and to US$70.00/bbl in 2012. Their post-2010 forecasts
are unchanged and the publisher is continuing to use a long-term price
assumption of US$70.00 for 2013-2018.
In 2009, BMI is now assuming a global average gasoline price of
US$62.12/bbl, with the fuel having peaked in June. The overall y-o-y
fall in 2009 gasoline prices is put at 40.0%. The BMI gas/oil forecast
is for an average price of US$68.62/bbl, assuming a monthly high of
US$92.49/bbl in December. The full year outturn represents a 43.4% fall
from the 2008 level. The annual jet price level for 2009 is forecast to
be US$65.17/bbl. This compares with US$124.95/bbl in 2008. The 2009
average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$49.06/bbl, down 43.9% from the
previous year's level.
Thai real GDP is now forecast by BMI to decline by 4.5% in 2009,
compared with growth of 2.6% in 2008. The publisher is now assuming 2.2%
growth in 2010, followed by 3.6% in 2011, 4.2% in 2012 and 4.6% in 2013.
State-controlled PTTEP and international oil company (IOC) partners are
working hard to secure domestic oil and gas volumes, with limited
success in terms of crude oil. The publisher is assuming oil and gas
liquids production of no more than 242,000b/d by 2013, although the
country is expected to pump 295,000b/d in 2009. Consumption is expected
to slip in 2009, but should then increase by up to 2% per annum in
2010-2013, implying demand of 833,000b/d by the end of the forecast
period. The import requirement would therefore be about 591,000b/d by
2013. End-period gas consumption of an estimated 42.6bcm outstrips
likely supply of 35.0bcm.
Between 2008 and 2018, the publisher is forecasting a reduction in Thai
oil production of 42.3%, with crude volumes falling steadily to
187,000b/d in 2018. Oil consumption between 2008 and 2018 is set to
increase by 15.4%, with growth slowing to an assumed 2.0% per annum
towards the end of the period and the country using 0.92mn b/d by 2018.
Gas production is expected to rise from 28.9bcm in 2008 to a peak of
35.0bcm in 2012-2014, before slipping to 30.0bcm by 2018. With demand
growth of 45.5%, this will require imports to rise to 24.4bcm by the end
of the forecast period. Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts can be found
at the back of this report, which provides regional and country-specific
projections.
Thailand still ranks eighth in BMI's updated Upstream Business
Environment rating, reflecting a modest resource position, moderate gas
growth outlook and an IOC-friendly competitive environment. The country
sits just ahead of Indonesia, but should be able to keep its Asian
neighbour at bay. Thailand now ranks equal 10th with Malaysia and
Pakistan in BMI's updated Downstream Business Environment rating,
reflecting its above-average gas demand and relatively low level of
retail site intensity. It is above Hong Kong and Taiwan in the league
table.
Key Topics Covered:
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Thailand Energy Market Overview
Business Environment Ranking
Business Environment
Company Monitor
Glossary of Terms
Methodology & Risks To Forecasts
Companies Mentioned:
PTT
PTT Exploration and Production (PTTEP)
Chevron
Esso (Thailand) plc
Thai Shell Co Ltd
Total
Hess
BG
Salamander Energy
For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/97b357/thailand_oil_and_g
Contact:Research and MarketsLaura Wood, Senior Managerpress@researchandmarkets.comU.S. Fax: 646-607-1907Fax (outside U.S.): +353-1-481-1716
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