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Research and Markets: In Terms Of Natural Gas, In 2008 the Taiwan Consumed 459bn Cubic Metres (Bcm) and Demand of 562bcm Is Targeted For 2013
Wednesday October 28, 09:00 PM
Research and Markets(http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/e4bccd/taiwan_oil_and_gas)
has announced the addition of the "Taiwan
Oil and Gas Report Q4 2009" report to their offering.
This Taiwan Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and
strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government
departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and
competitive intelligence on Taiwan's oil and gas industry
The latest Taiwan Oil & Gas Report forecasts that the country will
account for 3.93% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2013, while
making no meaningful contribution to supply. Asia Pacific regional oil
use of 21.40mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached 25.67mn b/d in
2008. It should average 24.83mn b/d in 2009, then rise to around 28.51mn
b/d by 2013. Regional oil production was just under 8.41mn b/d in 2001,
and averaged 8.45mn b/d in 2008. It is set to increase to 8.75mn b/d by
2013. In 2001 the region was importing an average 12.99mn b/d. This
total had risen to an estimated 17.22mn b/d in 2008, and is forecast to
reach 19.76mn b/d by 2013.
In terms of natural gas, in 2008 the region consumed 459bn cubic metres
(bcm) and demand of 562bcm is targeted for 2013. Production of 356bcm in
2008 should reach 488bcm in 2013, but implies net imports easing from an
estimated 102bcm per annum in 2008 to 74bcm in 2013. This is in spite of
many Asian gas producers being major exporters. Taiwan's share of gas
consumption in 2008 was 2.79%, while its share of production was
minimal. By 2013, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 2.47%.
For 2009 as a whole, the publisher is now assuming an average OPEC
basket price of US$55.00 per barrel (bbl), a 41.5% decline year-on-year
(y-o-y). This represents an upgrade from the US$52 forecast they have
stuck with during the past three quarters. Their OPEC basket assumption
delivers likely Brent, WTI, Urals and Dubai prices of US$56.30,
US$57.50, US$55.60 and US$55.60/bbl respectively. For 2010, the
publisher expects to see a recovery to US$60.00/bbl for the OPEC price
(up from their previous forecast of US$58), gaining further ground to
US$65.00 in 2011 and to US$70.00/bbl in 2012. Their post-2010 forecasts
are unchanged and the publisher is continuing to use a long-term price
assumption of US$70.00 for 2013-2018.
In 2009, BMI is now assuming a global average gasoline price of
US$62.12/bbl, with the fuel having peaked in June. The overall y-o-y
fall in 2009 gasoline prices is put at 40.0%. The BMI gasoil forecast is
for an average price of US$68.62/bbl, assuming a monthly high of
US$92.49/bbl in December. The fullyear outturn represents a 43.4% fall
from the 2008 level. The annual jet price level for 2009 is forecast to
be US$65.17/bbl. This compares with US$124.95/bbl in 2008. The 2009
average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$49.06/bbl, down 43.9% from the
previous year's level.
Taiwanese real gross domestic product (GDP) growth is now forecast by
BMI to contract by 4.5% in 2009, compared with growth of 0.1% in 2008.
The publisher is assuming 1.5% growth in 2010, 3.0% in 2011 and 3.3% in
2012, followed by 3.5% in 2013. State-owned Chinese Petroleum
Corporation (CPC) is tasked with securing oil and gas supply, but has no
significant domestic volumes to contribute. Oil consumption beyond 2009
is forecast to increase by around 2.0% per annum to 2013, implying
demand of 1.12mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. Gas usage is
expected to rise from the 2008 figure of 12.8bcm to 13.9bcm by 2013,
supplied largely by LNG imports.
Between 2008 and 2018, the publisher is forecasting an increase in
Taiwan's oil consumption from 1.07mn b/d to 1.24mn b/d, with the
country's refining capacity rising from 1.20mn b/d to 1.65mn b/d. Gas
demand is expected to rise from 12.8bcm in 2008 to a possible 15.6bcm by
2018, met largely by LNG imports. Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts can
be found at the end of this report, which provides regional and
country-specific projections.
Taiwan still ranks 14th and last in BMI's updated Upstream Business
Environment rating, thanks to a virtual absence of hydrocarbon
resources. The score reflects the total control of the government over
upstream oil activities and a healthy country risk profile, the latter
offsetting partly the lack of reserves and output growth potential. The
country also ranks last in BMI's Downstream Business Environment rating,
some distance behind nearest rival Hong Kong. The poor showing reflects
its high level of state involvement, relatively high retail site
intensity, and modest oil and gas demand growth outlook.
Key Topics Covered:
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Taiwan Energy Market Overview
Business Environment Ranking
Business Environment
Company Monitor
Glossary of Terms
Methodology & Risks To Forecasts
Companies Mentioned:
CPC Corporation
Formosa Petrochemical Corporation (FPCC)
NPC
Tung Ting Gas
Shell
ExxonMobil
For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/e4bccd/taiwan_oil_and_gas.
Contact:Research and MarketsLaura Wood, Senior Managerpress@researchandmarkets.comU.S. Fax: 646-607-1907Fax (outside U.S.): +353-1-481-1716
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