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Research and Markets: China Food and Drink Report Q4 2009 - Despite the Slowing Down of Industry Expansion, Forecast Sales Growth and Opportunities St
Tuesday November 3, 03:00 PM
Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/b6dafd/china_food_and_dri)
has announced the addition of the "China
Food and Drink Report Q4 2009" report to their offering.
The China Food and Drink Report provides industry professionals and
strategists, corporate analysts, food and drink associations, government
departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and
competitive intelligence on China's food and drink industry.
In light of the current economic downturn and reduced capital
expenditure, we have recently cut our forecast for 2009 mass grocery
retail (MGR) sales growth in China, as discussed in BMI's recently
published China Food & Drink Report for Q409. However, despite the
slowing down of industry expansion, forecast sales growth and
opportunities still remain impressive.
While we had initially maintained an 11.2% year-on-year (y-o-y) growth
forecast for Chinese MGR sales, expecting consumer demand to remain
resilient supported by aggressive discounting, we have now cut our y-o-y
growth forecast to 6.9%. According to our current forecasts, total MGR
sales in China are expected to grow by 66.2% to 2013. In the long term,
the sector is poised to benefit spectacularly from China's continued
economic growth, while its present state of relative immaturity also
allows for considerable growth opportunities.
Nevertheless, the first quarter of 2009 saw the Chinese economy grow at
its slowest pace since quarterly records began in 1992 as collapsing
exports and retreating consumers resulted in real GDP growth slowing to
6.1% y-o-y. Retail sales growth continued to decelerate in March,
slowing to a 27-month low of 14.7% y-o-y after recording growth of 15.2%
in the first two months of 2009. While this remains a fairly robust
figure, it nonetheless marks a sharp slowdown from the 21.6% average
growth posted in 2008 and we expect consumer spending to continue to
slow throughout the rest of the year as consumers tighten their belts.
While industry news in recent years has been dominated by expansion
plans, more recently a number of retailers have been closing
underperforming outlets and scaling back their short-term expansion
plans. For example, Japanese retailer AEON postponed by 12 months plans
to increase its network to 100 stores by February 2011 (requiring 72 new
openings). While AEON was quick to blame the delay on construction
problems, stating it was not indicative of reduced expenditure, this
move nevertheless set off alarm bells.
However, it is not all bad news, as a number of major retailers are
still pushing ahead with expansion plans. Taiwan-based supermarket chain
RT-Mart announced plans to launch 25 new outlets in China during 2009,
and Canada's Metro announced plans to open four new cash & carry outlets
this year. Meanwhile, Dutch retailer SPAR International unveiled its
ambition of becoming one of China's leading retailers, starting with
plans to treble its store network and to open new distribution centres
in Shandong and Guangdong. Unwilling to rest on its laurels as one of
the country's leading retailers, America's Wal- Mart has also been
steadily increasing its store network, and also announced that it is
piloting a convenience store format in the country, for which we expect
a rapid, widespread roll-out in the second half of the year. Therefore,
despite the somewhat dampened short-tern outlook for China's MGR sales,
the long-term outlook and opportunities remain very positive.
Key Topics Covered:
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Business Environment
Macroeconomic Outlook
Food
Drink
Mass Grocery Retail
Market Overview
Leading MGR Players
Competitive Landscape
Appendix
BMI Food & Drink Methodology
BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary
Companies Mentioned:
Tingyi (Cayman Islands) Holding
China Foods Ltd (formerly China National Cereals Oils And Foodstuffs)
China Mengniu Dairy Company
Tsingtao
Wahaha
Kweichow Moutai Co
Carrefour
Lianhua Supermarket Holdings
For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/b6dafd/china_food_and_dri
Contact:Research and MarketsLaura Wood, Senior Manager,press@researchandmarkets.comU.S. Fax: 646-607-1907Fax (outside U.S.): +353-1-481-1716
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