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Research and Markets: Hong Kong Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: Total Wireless Subscribers in Hong Kong Will Rise to 14.3 Million in 2013
Wednesday November 4, 03:30 PM
Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/90624f/3q09_hong_kong_mob)
has announced the addition of IE Market Research Corp.'s new report "3Q09
Hong Kong Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013" to their offering.
Total wireless subscribers in Hong Kong will rise to 14.3 million in
2013 with PCCW's market share increasing to 17.0%
Mobile Operator Forecast on Hong Kong provides over 50 operational and
financial metrics for Hong Kong's wireless market and is one of the best
forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the
operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical
and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 1Q2011. Operators
covered for Hong Kong include: CSL Limited/New World Mobility Limited,
Hutchison Telecommunications HK Hld Ltd, SmarTone Telecommunications
Holdings Ltd, and PCCW Limited. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are
updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through
regular updates.
Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+
mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world's
population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific
forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and
cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber
data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and
demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these
to company operational and financial metrics.
Executive Summary
Subscriber growth is slowing down in Hong Kong's mobile operator space
+6.4% industry average subscriber growth in 1Q.2009
Negative ARPU growth continues in Hong Kong
-4.7% industry average ARPU growth in 1Q.2009
CSL/New World and SmarTone had negative EBITDA growth in the latest
quarter
-3.6% industry average EBITDA growth in 1Q.2009
So what is Forecast?
Total mobile subscriber accounts in Hong Kong to reach 14.3 million in
2013
Given the latest quarter numbers, our model forecasts that total
wireless subscribers in Hong Kong will increase from 9.8 million in
2008 to 14.3 million in 2013.
We expect that Hutchison will have 3.6 million subscribers and PCCW
will have 2.4 million subscribers by the end of 2013.
PCCW's market share will increase over the next five years
Our model predicts that PCCW's subscriber market share will increase
from 13.4% in 2008 to 17.0% in 2013.
On the other hand, we expect that SmarTone will see its market share
decline from 11.6% in 2008 to 8.9% in 2013.
We forecast that Hutchison's share of total subscribers will be stable
at approximately 25.4% from 2009 to 2013.
SmarTone's monthly ARPU will be declining from 2009 to 2013
We forecast that the industry average monthly ARPU level will remain
in the range of HK$ 158 - HK$ 159 over the next several years.
We are predicting that SmarTone will see its monthly ARPU decrease
from HK$ 232 in 2008 to HK$ 201 in 2013.
EBITDA margins will be declining slightly in Hong Kong's mobile operator
space
We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as
EBITDA/reported revenue) will decline from 27.7% in 2008 to 25.5% in
2013.
According to our model, Hutchison's EBITDA margin will fall from 32.7%
to 28.2% and CSL/New World's EBITDA margin will decline from 28.5% to
25.0% over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
Companies Mentioned:
CSL Limited/New World Mobility Limited
Hutchison Telecommunications HK Hld Ltd
SmarTone Telecommunications Holdings Ltd
PCCW Limited
For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/90624f/3q09_hong_kong_mob
Contact:Research and MarketsLaura Wood, Senior Manager,press@researchandmarkets.comU.S. Fax: 646-607-1907Fax (outside U.S.): +353-1-481-1716
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